Mountain catchments of the Ukrainian Carpathians are highly susceptible to water erosion, but spatial differences in erosion are controlled not only by terrain and lithology but also by present-day land cover. This study compares the erosion potential of the Topilnychanka River catchment in the Skyba Carpathians and the upper Dniester catchment in the Watershed-Verkhovyna Carpathians and assesses the relevance of the results for geoplanning. Terrain analysis was performed in QGIS using a forest- and building-corrected digital elevation model. Erosion potential was evaluated by integrating terrain ruggedness, slope steepness, morphological levels, horizontal dissection, and the erodibility of Quaternary deposits. Forest cover was mapped from Sentinel-2 Level-2A imagery by supervised classification with a Gaussian Mixture Model. The Topilnychanka catchment shows higher morphometrically controlled erosion potential because of its contrasting Skyba relief, steep slopes, and strong dissection. The upper Dniester has smoother relief, but erosion susceptibility is enhanced by widespread weak flysch and loamy surface deposits. Forest cover reaches 83.1% in the Topilnychanka catchment and 51.2% in the upper Dniester catchment. The results show that erosion assessment should distinguish natural erosion potential from the conditions controlling its current realization. Geoplanning should prioritize high-potential areas with insufficient forest cover, while maintaining continuous forest cover and limiting further clear-cutting in the Skyba Carpathians.
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